The Market Is Speaking

The market seems to dislike the Fed news today. Markets were flat and now they are down almost 0.5% (maybe a little less) with the ten year yielding 3.93%. This is not chaos but it seems like a frustration with no new information about what will happen.

Market participants can look forward to another six weeks of more of the same dialogue as the last six weeks.

Last night in my interview I said they would raise today and again in August but that the guidance would be the most important thing. I didn’t know I’d be six weeks (or more?) early.

If the Fed has the same announcement in August as today the markets could have an ugly reaction, unless of course we sell off for six weeks in anticipation of a crappy announcement.

Despite all the shenanigans this has been interesting.

2 Comments

  1. Sounds like a good argument for bottoms up analysis for making investment decisions.

    Reply
  2. Guess you could say hello to a nice rally in US long bonds (i.e., 10+ or 30 year) to the end of this year, IMHO….

    Reply

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