Just History

Back in August, in preparation for a CNBC Asia appearance, I looked up the fact that there have only been six years in the last 20 where both August and September were down months for the SPX. In August the SPX was down about 15 points. I concluded that I thought September would not in fact be a down month like so many folks felt. Subject to a last second tick, the SPX is up eight points for the month and while we are at it, 37 points for the quarter (half of that coming in the last couple of days). At one point in September I said I had a good chance of being wrong but it turns out this thought was right. While it is not clear to me how this sort of thing helps my clients, short term moves in the market can sometimes matter to long term money. To do this analysis all I did was go to BigCharts.com and look at the two months year by year and then I counted. While my family will tell you I am not that bright I am able to count to 20. That was the process and it is obviously easy for anyone. Sometimes market certitudes are not that absolute. The response for the WFPA has been great so far, thank...

Closing Out The Quarter

So the obvious question is will yesterdays lift be preserved or move higher before it might unwind next week? The move yesterday was what I was expecting to occur earlier in the week resulting in a bigger move than we have seen so far. This kind of mark up is common. If yesterday’s move up sticks, money managers, like me, will get paid a little more. I am not big enough to move anything but some IMs are. They move may have been that simple. This same general idea is why I have thought that we might see a rally sometime this fall. I still think we can move higher but time is running a little short. One recent obstacle to this thought is that a couple of my counter strategies/low correlation to US themes have been working very well lately, particularly gold and Australia. While anything could happen I think that higher equity prices would be tough if gold keeps going toward $500. The treasury market at its current level is not an obstacle but what it may be pricing in could be the obstacle. It is moving toward horizontal or inverted. New 30 year paper could help here but there is visibility with this that should monitored closely. If the curve does invert there will be, based on history, a big time lag before it hurts equities. Investors will have plenty of time to adjust...

Maybe He Reads This Site??

Humor Attempt Keith Wirtz, manager of the Fifth Third International Equity Fund (FIEIX) was on Kudlow and two of his picks were stocks I own for clients and have been writing about since the beginning, ANZ and SNP. Aussie banking and Chinese Oil. I have owned both for a long time. Both are important themes. He was also on board with the Austria-as gateway-to Eastern Europe theme that I started in on last winter. On a separate note, I had several comments and many emails giving a nod to my blogiversary, as Trader Mike put it. I try to answer emails and comments where called for but there are too many to respond to, which is great in different...

One Year For Random Roger

Today marks the one year anniversary for this web site. I am thrilled and thankful for all of the luck, media attention and people that I have made contact with as this site has grown. When I first started Random Roger it was not going to be about investing but I ran out things to talk about after a couple of days. As the site evolved I felt I wanted share how I do my job. Then I started to feel that a lot of the coverage of markets and investment products was lacking so I began to write about that more as well. Writing as much as I do (about 930 posts since I started) is a lot of fun and I plan to continue with it. Hopefully the content will continue to be useful to some of you....

"What Do You Think Of Materials?"

Good question. Like most sectors it depends on what part of the sector you mean. I own one chemical stock for clients and it has gotten hit due to oil issues. It is down more than some but not as bad as some others. That part of the sector is reacting to something very specific that may or may not be short term. Since a lot of chemical stocks are down at the same I don’t see much reason to consider selling. The other parts of the sector that I own for clients have helped a lot with what looks like will be a very good quarter. Here I am talking about a foreign gold stock and a Brazilian commodity company which were up 20% and 50% respectively for the quarter. While those moves may seem like a lot, the truth is I have owned them for ages and every now that they have their day in the sun. Part of having a diversified portfolio means that there is always something working. Well, almost always:-) I also own Plum Creek Timber which is unchanged for the quarter but it paid $0.38 in dividends this...