Just History

Back in August, in preparation for a CNBC Asia appearance, I looked up the fact that there have only been six years in the last 20 where both August and September were down months for the SPX. In August the SPX was down about 15 points. I concluded that I thought September would not in fact be a down month like so many folks felt.

Subject to a last second tick, the SPX is up eight points for the month and while we are at it, 37 points for the quarter (half of that coming in the last couple of days).

At one point in September I said I had a good chance of being wrong but it turns out this thought was right.

While it is not clear to me how this sort of thing helps my clients, short term moves in the market can sometimes matter to long term money. To do this analysis all I did was go to BigCharts.com and look at the two months year by year and then I counted. While my family will tell you I am not that bright I am able to count to 20. That was the process and it is obviously easy for anyone.

Sometimes market certitudes are not that absolute.

The response for the WFPA has been great so far, thank you!


  1. Thank you for your entire year of work sharing your selection processes. Also, for highlighting the web site of your fire association with the address. What a wonderful way to “use” your fame, fans, and fire fighting!! I live in Canada so it will take awhile, but the check will be there.


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