Keeps On A Lifting

At least that is how the market is starting out and the world markets seem likely to support the lift in the US today.

If the market were to set a bear trap this is what it would look like. I have no idea if my bearish view will turn out to be correct or if it is next stop 1350 (for the SPX). Fortunately I do not have to be right about this. This is something I have been writing about for ages, not making such an extreme bet that being wrong costs you too much.

Plenty of people sound compelling without being right very often. The jury is still out on my ability to call big turns in the market and the like, and I know this. As the market goes up far more often than not, there is value in staying in the game even if, like me right now, you have a little more cash than normal. This entire concept is very important to how think this job should be done.

A lot of things look to be working right now including foreign and gold as the dollar is getting smacked. Am I seeing correctly that the ten year is now yielding 5.01%, oops! Did the Fed do a surprise lowering while I have been away (humor attempt)?

More later, thanks for sticking with me while I am away.

3 Comments

  1. Mr. Nusbaum,
    Only a kind suggestion- more fun less work!
    And a quotation from G.Perrets’ book
    “There ‘s a War to be Won”.(1991).
    The book is about the problems the US Army overcame during WW2.
    All but one- from pg 34; about the problems of the US Army in Iceland-
    “Even after these problems had been resolved,there remained a constant source of trouble to which some of the best minds in the Army never found a solution:
    the gorgeousness of Icelandic women.”
    Still true I suppose.
    Best Regards,
    HLP

    Reply
  2. http://www.indexuniverse.com/
    index.php?section=6&id=1531

    just off the press….the gist is that for first half of this year index benchmarks soundly beat active funds .This is good news for etf do it your self investors. and…probably supports roger’s hesitancy to be too active as an asset mgr.

    Roger, how much % do you have in cash for your average portfolio? I, myself, have a lot of cash and go crazy when the mkt looks bullish and i miss out on those few huge up days. Selling into strength is easy; it’s getting back in. My mind set is that I have to be nimble. Scale in and be prepared to quickly scale out. Waiting too long to get in only makes late entry more pricy and risky. But, heck, i would rather have a pro at the helm. Trouble is, i’m not sure mgrs want to deal with timing as a risk mgmt strategy.

    Reply
  3. What is your current take on EWL as a store of value in this unstable world?

    Reply

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