Happy New Year

Just a quick note this morning to wish everyone a healthy, happy and prosperous new year. Also, thank you to everyone for helping to make this site what it is. I write a lot of content for two big reasons. One is that it helps me do my job by sorting through and articulating the various things I study. This has helped me to rule things in and out. The other reason is I do enjoy trying to help people learn more and think about things differently. To the extent I actually do that, it is very...

Happy New Year

Just a quick note this morning to wish everyone a healthy, happy and prosperous new year. Also, thank you to everyone for helping to make this site what it is. I write a lot of content for two big reasons. One is that it helps me do my job by sorting through and articulating the various things I study. This has helped me to rule things in and out. The other reason is I do enjoy trying to help people learn more and think about things differently. To the extent I actually do that, it is very...

Sunday Morning Coffee

As my thoughts about things like toll roads and other lowly correlated assets evolve I thought it might make sense to shed a little more light on why I am thinking about this stuff more, what realistically can be expected from these types of assets and more importantly what not to expect. It’s no secret that I think a bear market has already started as a function of excess gone bad in the financial sector. Regardless of whether a bear market has started or not, the fact is we have had bear markets in the past. The come, the market drops, they go and the market goes back up. This will be the fate of the next one whenever that might be. It’s like going to the dentist. You don’t want to have to endure sitting in the chair but you pretty much know what you are going to get. From this standpoint bear markets do not really threaten you financially (of course bad asset allocation is a different story). You pretty much know what you’re gonna get and if you can add any value during a bear market, all the better. A bigger issue than a bear market that looms is the threat of returns below average after the bear market. Regardless of anyone’s emotional state a repeat of the past is not to be feared, it is to be endured. Once endured I think we may be in for a period of returns that are noticeably below normal for an extended period which could be a new thing. This would disrupt a lot of financial plans. I...

Sunday Morning Coffee

As my thoughts about things like toll roads and other lowly correlated assets evolve I thought it might make sense to shed a little more light on why I am thinking about this stuff more, what realistically can be expected from these types of assets and more importantly what not to expect. It’s no secret that I think a bear market has already started as a function of excess gone bad in the financial sector. Regardless of whether a bear market has started or not, the fact is we have had bear markets in the past. The come, the market drops, they go and the market goes back up. This will be the fate of the next one whenever that might be. It’s like going to the dentist. You don’t want to have to endure sitting in the chair but you pretty much know what you are going to get. From this standpoint bear markets do not really threaten you financially (of course bad asset allocation is a different story). You pretty much know what you’re gonna get and if you can add any value during a bear market, all the better. A bigger issue than a bear market that looms is the threat of returns below average after the bear market. Regardless of anyone’s emotional state a repeat of the past is not to be feared, it is to be endured. Once endured I think we may be in for a period of returns that are noticeably below normal for an extended period which could be a new thing. This would disrupt a lot of financial plans. I...