Soft Landing? Could It Be True?

I don’t know. My inclination is to think that it is too soon to know whether the Fed successfully engineered a soft landing or not but the GDP number seems promising. I’m sorry, what was that? The Chicago number was what? No, I’m sorry that gets in the way of the greatest story never told. I have not been in the soft landing crowd because it happens so rarely. I would be thrilled to be wrong but I don’t think this is resolved just yet. Further will all of the statistics floating around about how long it has been since an x% correction over xtimeperiod I feel no rush to invest every last...

Soft Landing? Could It Be True?

I don’t know. My inclination is to think that it is too soon to know whether the Fed successfully engineered a soft landing or not but the GDP number seems promising. I’m sorry, what was that? The Chicago number was what? No, I’m sorry that gets in the way of the greatest story never told. I have not been in the soft landing crowd because it happens so rarely. I would be thrilled to be wrong but I don’t think this is resolved just yet. Further will all of the statistics floating around about how long it has been since an x% correction over xtimeperiod I feel no rush to invest every last...

AOD Is In The House

The Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD), or is it Dynamic Total Dividend, listed and is trading. You can click here for a good video explanation. According to the video AOD can go 100% foreign as opposed to AGD which has a limit of 80% foreign. AOD has put tax qualified lower as a priority than AGD. The bigger thing will be foreign dividends and its capture method for taking in more dividends. The idea goes something like this; lets say you find three financial stocks that each yield 3%. Further, all three are on different dividend cycles; one goes ex-dividend on the Jan, April, July and Oct and the other two go ex-dividend on the other two cycles. Pretending everything else is static this idea could yield 9%. There are plenty of things to get in the way of this going perfectly but for now that is not the point. Many foreign companies pay once or twice a year so depending on what you can find on the calendar, with no regard for taxes and the yield could up a lot. This is not going to yield 20% or anything like that but Alpine knows what they are doing as demonstrated by their other funds. If it is not clear by now AOD is probably a better fit for an IRA. One last thing, like all CEFs that come to market the underwriting fees are embedded in the price and so the fund will be at a premium to NAV for a while or maybe longer. AGD has traded at a premium its entire life, according to ETFconnect.On...

AOD Is In The House

The Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD), or is it Dynamic Total Dividend, listed and is trading. You can click here for a good video explanation. According to the video AOD can go 100% foreign as opposed to AGD which has a limit of 80% foreign. AOD has put tax qualified lower as a priority than AGD. The bigger thing will be foreign dividends and its capture method for taking in more dividends. The idea goes something like this; lets say you find three financial stocks that each yield 3%. Further, all three are on different dividend cycles; one goes ex-dividend on the Jan, April, July and Oct and the other two go ex-dividend on the other two cycles. Pretending everything else is static this idea could yield 9%. There are plenty of things to get in the way of this going perfectly but for now that is not the point. Many foreign companies pay once or twice a year so depending on what you can find on the calendar, with no regard for taxes and the yield could up a lot. This is not going to yield 20% or anything like that but Alpine knows what they are doing as demonstrated by their other funds. If it is not clear by now AOD is probably a better fit for an IRA. One last thing, like all CEFs that come to market the underwriting fees are embedded in the price and so the fund will be at a premium to NAV for a while or maybe longer. AGD has traded at a premium its entire life, according to ETFconnect.On...

Here We Go

Long time reader Russell120 sent me a copy of John Mauldin’s newsletter entitled CAPM is Crap which is an attempt to turn the ideas of Alpha and Beta upside down. Among other things was a chart that showed taking on higher beta does not result in higher returns. The article also has some positive things to say about fundamental indexing. Quite frankly I felt as though I was ready things similar to what I have been writing about since I started this site (not claiming anyone stole my work just a sort of like mindedness). I think I can address some of the points made fairly concisely. Higher beta does not result in better returns. Well there is one problem with this conclusion. A high beta stock is likely to have its day in the sun but eventually it will start to rain. Pick any internet stock from the bubble. Chances are it gave ten years’, or more, worth of appreciation from 1998-1999. The person who sold his net stock on Dec 31, 1999 and never went back had a different experience than someone who held on to internet stocks too long. This is true for every stock market fad. Success with the next fad will not come from holding forever; it will come from holding for a couple of years, give or take. When I write about beta I use the word volatility, not risk. Increasing risk is really not something people want to do, they may want to increase volatility to capture a general rise in the market but there is never a good time to absorb...