Checking In

I had to come to our office in Phoenix today and am just now able to check in on the blog; thank you for all the comments! Last week I mentioned the Latvian lat (the currency there) as being vulnerable to some sort of Iceland-like episode. This morning I found this article in the International Herald Tribune about the same thing and also mentions a couple of other countries in the region that are less at risk but at some risk nonetheless. I believe generally knowing about these things is useful. Knowing that China has been frothy for the last couple of months (or longer?) and that government officials were concerned (Tuesday was not the first time the officials expressed at least a little concern) may have helped make yesterday a little easier for some folks. Herb Morgan has an article up at Seeking Alpha revisiting why he doesn’t own emerging markets and using yesterday as a validation of some sort. While I think he has it wrong he did not deserve to get filleted in the manner he did in the comments. He obviously missed out on more than he benefited yesterday but chances are his clients are generally comfortable without emerging markets or they own it elsewhere. In case you missed this; here is an interview with Mark Mobius. Marc Faber would not be a buyer in emerging markets here. I view the yen as a canary for the market for the time being as yesterday sorts itself...

Checking In

I had to come to our office in Phoenix today and am just now able to check in on the blog; thank you for all the comments! Last week I mentioned the Latvian lat (the currency there) as being vulnerable to some sort of Iceland-like episode. This morning I found this article in the International Herald Tribune about the same thing and also mentions a couple of other countries in the region that are less at risk but at some risk nonetheless. I believe generally knowing about these things is useful. Knowing that China has been frothy for the last couple of months (or longer?) and that government officials were concerned (Tuesday was not the first time the officials expressed at least a little concern) may have helped make yesterday a little easier for some folks. Herb Morgan has an article up at Seeking Alpha revisiting why he doesn’t own emerging markets and using yesterday as a validation of some sort. While I think he has it wrong he did not deserve to get filleted in the manner he did in the comments. He obviously missed out on more than he benefited yesterday but chances are his clients are generally comfortable without emerging markets or they own it elsewhere. In case you missed this; here is an interview with Mark Mobius. Marc Faber would not be a buyer in emerging markets here. I view the yen as a canary for the market for the time being as yesterday sorts itself...

“Two Days Before The Day After Tomorrow”

The above title (think about that one) refers to a South Park episode about global warming. There is obviously a fair bit of heat on global markets right now. The video I posted yesterday morning was obviously made Monday afternoon before things started to happen and so all was still right with the world. The reason to bring it up again is to reiterate my belief (and by extension how I act on my belief) that this sort of thing happens, there is nothing unusual about it and so there is no need to assign emotion to this if you are properly diversified and are in touch with how your portfolio is likely to react to extreme moves in either direction. I noted that Asia was likely to get smacked hard (although China was up 3.94%) which is what happened and Europe continued to decline too. Obviously the US market is indicated higher but I don’t have any feel or hunch for whether this reverses today or not. I will say that it did not feel like a lot of people (based on what I read, watched or the many comments left on this blog) were feeling real pain or angst. If this assessment turns out to be correct then the decline may not end up being very constructive or cathartic. Any outcome is of course possible but the 8% correction last spring turned out to be fuel for a very nice lift and the anguish then was palpable. If the market turns around and goes higher starting today then I don’t think the correction will have turned out...

"Two Days Before The Day After Tomorrow"

The above title (think about that one) refers to a South Park episode about global warming. There is obviously a fair bit of heat on global markets right now. The video I posted yesterday morning was obviously made Monday afternoon before things started to happen and so all was still right with the world. The reason to bring it up again is to reiterate my belief (and by extension how I act on my belief) that this sort of thing happens, there is nothing unusual about it and so there is no need to assign emotion to this if you are properly diversified and are in touch with how your portfolio is likely to react to extreme moves in either direction. I noted that Asia was likely to get smacked hard (although China was up 3.94%) which is what happened and Europe continued to decline too. Obviously the US market is indicated higher but I don’t have any feel or hunch for whether this reverses today or not. I will say that it did not feel like a lot of people (based on what I read, watched or the many comments left on this blog) were feeling real pain or angst. If this assessment turns out to be correct then the decline may not end up being very constructive or cathartic. Any outcome is of course possible but the 8% correction last spring turned out to be fuel for a very nice lift and the anguish then was palpable. If the market turns around and goes higher starting today then I don’t think the correction will have turned out...

Oh By The Way

Europe and the Americas did much worse than the rest of Asia. It makes sense to expect Asia to get smacked overnight although I am not sure what this portends for the US on...