Familiar Chart Pattern

Long time readers might recognize this chart I use in my technical study as this is what stocks did on Tuesday. I had a post on RealMoney yesterday in which I said that the panic is over but that the event is not. The market then got whacked. I tend to think that the panic is in fact over and what is happening now is the discounting of how serious this will or will not be. I mentioned over the weekend that no more selling made no sense to me. That such a big threat could resolve itself in a couple of weeks just seemed wrong, still does. Based on a couple of the comments yesterday the panic may NOT be over. This is subjective of course but I think the panic of early August was the discovery of the problem. Now that it has been discovered it needs to resolve over time. Generally speaking I have thought the worst case scenario from this would be a normal bear market and while I have been less vocal about a normal recession this wouldn’t be shocking either. Regarding the Bespoke table from yesterday a reader asked “How do you time your over weighting or under weighting of a sector? Why do you think it is reasonable to time sectors, but not time the market?” It depends how you use the word time. As a means of short term trading I don’t think it is ideal for managing other people’s money (this is my perception only and I am not saying what other people should do) and I am not that...

Bespoke Speaks

The crew over at Bespoke cranked up the Gee-Golly-Whiz Machine to spit out this table of SPX sector weights going year by year back to 1990. I posted a less detailed type of thing from them before and some readers saw the utility and some did not but this is huge for how I construct sector weights in the portfolios I manage. It should be easier to see if you click on it. It is also easier to see by clicking on it in Bespoke’s original...

Bespoke Speaks

The crew over at Bespoke cranked up the Gee-Golly-Whiz Machine to spit out this table of SPX sector weights going year by year back to 1990. I posted a less detailed type of thing from them before and some readers saw the utility and some did not but this is huge for how I construct sector weights in the portfolios I manage. It should be easier to see if you click on it. It is also easier to see by clicking on it in Bespoke’s original...