Happy New Year

Just a quick note this morning to wish everyone a healthy, happy and prosperous new year. Also, thank you to everyone for helping to make this site what it is.

I write a lot of content for two big reasons. One is that it helps me do my job by sorting through and articulating the various things I study. This has helped me to rule things in and out. The other reason is I do enjoy trying to help people learn more and think about things differently. To the extent I actually do that, it is very rewarding.

18 Comments

  1. Happy New Year !

    I’ve been reading this blog for 3-4 months; it’s usually too deep for me, but it has made me think of different ways to construct my portfolio. Your investing philosophy seems to be:

    – lag both up/down markets
    – lag up markets a little
    – lag down markets more than a
    little(using inverse products)
    – implement this strategy
    incrementally using
    top-down analysis

    The net affect will be to consistently out-perform the market over time. Am I close or have I completely misunderstood your blog.

    Thanks for the time it takes to keep this blog going.

    Reply
  2. Thanks so much for all you have done.

    Well if you think there has been heart ache and disagreements in the comments this year you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    Happy new year to all!

    Reply
  3. that is mostly right.

    it needs to be understood that not going down as much is a goal with no certainty only effort.

    Last year was not up a lot but up a good amount and i was even w/ the market.

    Lagging an up a lot market is very common for active management as was the case just about every year in the late 90s.

    If active management is going to shine I would say it would be during up a little, down a little and down a lot. Again no certainty just more of a chance than during up a lot.

    Reply
  4. Same to you, Roger. Your themes of moderation, diversification, and education (especially regarding new ETFs) have certainly helped to shape my thinking and portfolio. The open forum format that you moderate is a welcome change from the ego-driven rants of most other bloggers. I enjoy checking back throughout the day because I always find something that’s relevant to my own situation, whether it’s your point of view, a post from another reader, or just a question that’s been on my mind. Thanks for the time and effort that you put into the blog.

    Reply
  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    Reply
  6. Yes! Happy New Year,may we all enjoy the bounty this wonderful world offers.
    I was thinking, it would be a little better if everyone had a name, that way we could respond to the questions as required, or am i missing something here?
    I am preparing for “Bens” statement and Q4 results to be priced in,,I am sure around April or May,, shorting the market in general will be the theme.

    Mac

    Reply
  7. “Last year was not up a lot but up a good amount and i was even w/ the market.”

    Roger, re: being even with the market, does this refer to just the equities part of your portfolio, or the entire portfolio, including bonds & cash?

    I’m a regular reader and I find that your posts, for me, spark a lot of new interest in sometimes boring old investment topics. Thanks.

    Reply
  8. this quickly becomes a compliance problem, putting details in print. video is ok, for now. this weekend I will be wrapping up the year in detail, please check back then for an answer to your question.

    Reply
  9. “this quickly becomes a compliance problem, putting details in print. video is ok, for now.”

    Electrons for video are ok.

    Electrons for ascii text can cause a compliance problem.

    Am I the idiot here or is it the regulators?

    Reply
  10. Possibly the regulator Anon 10:53 but more likely the compliance people in Roger’s office are being overly cautious (not a terrible idea in this litigious era but it does cramp the blog’s style); regardless I continue to appreciate Roger’s ‘deconstruction’ of financial instruments and if his opinion must be delivered more with the left hand than the right then we’ll all just need to develop more careful reading habits and that’s not necessarily a bad thing either.

    Everyone be safe tonight and best wishes for next year (but don’t count on the problems in real estate or finance being over by then).

    Excelsior!

    Reply
  11. Happy New Year to you, Roger, and readers, and thanks for the work you put in in this blog.
    Your inverse ETF strategy has been the single most
    helpful idea as opposed to all in all out.

    I did read a couple of articles by supposedly respected advisors recommending the “cash is king
    during a recession” argument, and advising selling
    all equities now. i prefer the double short approach as well as raising more cash (10-20%) and similar amount in bonds. With about 5% in 2x inverse funds that leaves about 50% long equities.

    I don’t know how well this approach will work, but
    time will tell. One thing that does somewhat confound me is the relative lack of interest in bond
    funds on this blog. Given that several ETF’s like
    TLT, TLH, and several bond MF’s have handily beating the Dow and S&P this year, why are they
    given such short shrift. Just curious.

    Thanks again,

    Scoot

    Reply
  12. in most cases owning the actual treasuries makes more sense to me. They are cheaper, very liquid and you know what your yield will be.

    Reply
  13. RW,

    I understand that the compliance people in Roger’s office need to take a conservative approach and the last thing I would want to see is problems for Roger. I was not criticizing Roger, I just find regulators kind of slow and easy targets so I could not resist making the comment the way I did.

    Reply
  14. Happy new year all, and ditto to all the positive statements about this site.

    Scoot. The thing with bonds right now for me is the worry that the Fed may want to reverse course and start raising the fund rate to help the dollar. But I doubt if they will. They seem to be more interested in short term market satisfaction instead and a weak dollar to help businesses.

    Not their job BTW. They seem to be taking lessons from China with their currency policy.

    Reply
  15. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    Reply
  16. Just finished Ken Fisher’s latest book. I found his views on diversification similar to yours, in terms of number of holdings. He indicated using the lower cap range of the S&P 500 as a proxy for small caps. Does this make sense to you( he does a good job of correlating his statements with data, but he picks his data:))? Would you use an ETF to capture this exposure, if it makes sense. Did you happen to read his book, and what did you think?

    Happy and Prosperous New Year to you and all your readers. I learn a something from you and your extended family each day,

    Sam

    Reply
  17. I worked at Fisher for a short time so I was definitely influenced, by my time there.

    The smaller companies in the SPX are quite small, barely mid caps. Their research tells them that they get something like 90 or 95% of the return of small cap using mid caps but with much less volatility.

    However if they manage $35 billion, they cannot allocate 2%, $700million, into a small cap company, they’d be buying the whole thing.

    I am sure they have a work around but I don’t know what it is.

    Reply
  18. Hi Roger.. wish you a happy new year & keep the great work going on.

    Reply

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Happy New Year

Just a quick note this morning to wish everyone a healthy, happy and prosperous new year. Also, thank you to everyone for helping to make this site what it is.

I write a lot of content for two big reasons. One is that it helps me do my job by sorting through and articulating the various things I study. This has helped me to rule things in and out. The other reason is I do enjoy trying to help people learn more and think about things differently. To the extent I actually do that, it is very rewarding.

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Your email address will not be published.

WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing