The Big Picture For The Week Of March 30, 2008

9 Comments

  1. Hi Roger,

    Did you ever take a look at my blog? If you haven’t, I think you would find it of interest. I discuss a wide range of topics centering around the economy and the markets.

    Have a nice weekend.

    Fred

    Reply
  2. Roger,

    Love the Blog, and always look forward to your videos. I am starting to redo my retirement portfolio after reading your ideas. I want to know if I should allocate 2 % to a sector or just to a stock. I ask this because 2% to a sector would mean trying to find 50 sectors to put money into and that does not seem simple.

    Thanks,

    Todd

    Reply
  3. Fred, i will check it out

    Todd, the way the question is framed, I think you might be using the word sector incorrectly.

    The S&P 500 has ten sectors. financials, tech, health and so on. You can get the weightings of the ten by going to the info page at iShares for their SPX ETF.

    Financials are the largest sector with a 16 point something weight. If you are benchmarking to an index then I would think you would want to make a decision about whether you think you should have more than, less than or the same as the SPX weight and then do that for each of the ten.

    I think maybe you mean groups, whether or not to have 50 groups. So in financials groups include money center banks, brokers, insurance, regional banks and maybe even exchanges. So there is 5 groups right there and there are probably more than that in the financial sector alone.

    Reply
  4. Roger,

    Why are you not disclosing your performance numbers anymore? You used to say that was ok as long as it was verbal (i.e., in your video) rather than in writing.

    – Adam

    Reply
  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    Reply
  6. Roger,

    I tend to agree that this market will continue down for a while, but what I would like to know is what sectors or countries do you think will be the best places to invest once this market decline is over?

    Reply
  7. i will reply to this comment for tomorrow’s post.

    Reply
  8. I just posted my model updates: http://www.regimenia.com

    You might be surprised to see my timing model reading and long allocation. I was.

    Reply
  9. Here’s my take for WIW. If the Fed pulls it off it will be a very shallow bear. I look at telecoms to hold in here with no more decline and GE to hold in this scenario, if they crack something wicked comes this way. Logically you’d think the cell phone bill might be the first bill to be dropped or neglected in a pinch so it makes sense they are down 25% and through all this nastiness GE has pretty much stayed range bound. But if this happens and the bear is shallow, it’s possible that the mess will just be delayed. If it’s not shallow then I think XLF will have been nuked to the point that they tank the market for much bigger number than 30%. I saw somewhere that JPM is leveraged 49:1 with corp. default swaps. So pray Ben can keep the economy a float.
    Steve o

    Reply

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The Big Picture For The Week Of March 30, 2008

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