Mid Morning–Yet More Oil

Random Roger’s Big Picture: Mid Morning Yesterday

Yesterday I was skeptical of the oil decline and today oil is up a bunch.

After one day, yesterday’s post is neither right nor wrong, it is too soon to know. I don’t know if analysts actually change their mind so often or if they just bring out the oil bears on a down day and bring out the bulls on an up day.

The prudent path for you is to draw your own conclusion about longer term, global supply and demand and realize that your opinion will not be right today and then immediately wrong tomorrow only to be right again on Friday.

Oil went up a lot, has corrected a noticeable amount (not the first time for this mind you) and now the market seems to be trying to sort out the short term.

If you are a short term trader then you should care about the short term. If you are longer term then you probably should not be overly concerned with short term moves.

4 Comments

  1. Afternoon Roger,

    What is really interesting in all this, is when are the Arab,,,Asian banks going to start their write-offs, which has to be in very large numbers, i know they have suffered before,,,but, are they that much smarter than us??

    Mac

    Reply
  2. a privately held pool of capital that makes unlevered (even if poorly timed) investment that goes down a lot does not need to be written off in the manner that I think the question is framed.

    Temasek is a fund, a pool of capital for the benefit of Singapore not a lending instituion. nost of these investments have come from SWFs not public banks (Citic Bank invested in BSC and that might be a public bank, not sure about that one).

    Reply
  3. Taking risks with un-levered capital? Who’s heard of such an outrageous and capitalist-hating behaviour? Surely the persons responsible for these terrible acts should be brought to task, for their acts are likely to have no repercussions what-so-ever if there’s a chance the plans could go wrong.

    Plus there’s the problems of not destroying the value of their currency, how are we going to continue to receive cheap goods if they don’t have to devalue their currencies?

    Reply
  4. This is what it is like trading in a “sideways market”. And we are going to have for at least the rest of this year and probably part of 2009. But that’s why they call it a Traders Market right now. Take “ALL” of your profits when you can.

    Reply

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Mid Morning–Yet More Oil

Random Roger’s Big Picture: Mid Morning Yesterday

Yesterday I was skeptical of the oil decline and today oil is up a bunch.

After one day, yesterday’s post is neither right nor wrong, it is too soon to know. I don’t know if analysts actually change their mind so often or if they just bring out the oil bears on a down day and bring out the bulls on an up day.

The prudent path for you is to draw your own conclusion about longer term, global supply and demand and realize that your opinion will not be right today and then immediately wrong tomorrow only to be right again on Friday.

Oil went up a lot, has corrected a noticeable amount (not the first time for this mind you) and now the market seems to be trying to sort out the short term.

If you are a short term trader then you should care about the short term. If you are longer term then you probably should not be overly concerned with short term moves.

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published.

WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing