Sunday Morning Coffee

A reader asked me to weigh in on the coming election and whether I think it will be market moving. First a hysterical quote from Alan Ableson’s column attributed to Tom Gallagher from ISI; This, indeed, is an odd election: It pits a candidate who should have been president eight years ago against a candidate who should be president eight years from now. I don’t write too much about politics because my skeptical nature leads me to conclude that election results are never as meaningful as some would have us believe. I’m a Libertarian so I don’t really care for either candidate (have not been of any candidate for quite a long time). They both have flaws galore and they probably each have positives too. Part of my frustration (not unique) is the fact that very, very few of the “promises” made can actually happen. Candidates often promise things that cannot be passed through congress. They may (or may not) believe in the value of certain policies but still many of them never have a shot in congress and they know this going in. I find the pandering to be nauseating. I find myself perplexed as some of the ideas that come from candidates that seem to ignore common sense. Regardless of how we got here, the economy stinks. Raising taxes in a lousy economy is a bad idea. Raising them in a mid 1990s economy is far less damaging. I find there is dishonesty in much of what is said, there is no easy way to find really unbiased analysis of what is being proposed. As an example...

Sunday Morning Coffee

A reader asked me to weigh in on the coming election and whether I think it will be market moving. First a hysterical quote from Alan Ableson’s column attributed to Tom Gallagher from ISI; This, indeed, is an odd election: It pits a candidate who should have been president eight years ago against a candidate who should be president eight years from now. I don’t write too much about politics because my skeptical nature leads me to conclude that election results are never as meaningful as some would have us believe. I’m a Libertarian so I don’t really care for either candidate (have not been of any candidate for quite a long time). They both have flaws galore and they probably each have positives too. Part of my frustration (not unique) is the fact that very, very few of the “promises” made can actually happen. Candidates often promise things that cannot be passed through congress. They may (or may not) believe in the value of certain policies but still many of them never have a shot in congress and they know this going in. I find the pandering to be nauseating. I find myself perplexed as some of the ideas that come from candidates that seem to ignore common sense. Regardless of how we got here, the economy stinks. Raising taxes in a lousy economy is a bad idea. Raising them in a mid 1990s economy is far less damaging. I find there is dishonesty in much of what is said, there is no easy way to find really unbiased analysis of what is being proposed. As an example...

The Big Picture for the Week of August 31, 2008

The video is shot in Pololu Valley which is a few miles east of Hawi (pronounced Ha-vee) at the end of highway 270. Here is the list of currency ETFs filed for by WisdomTree according to IndexUniverse; WisdomTree Dreyfus Chilean Peso Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Czech Koruna Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Hong Kong Dollar Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Hungarian Forint Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Israeli Shekel Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Icelandic Krona Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Indonesian Rupiah Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Malaysian Ringgit Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Mexican Peso Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Norwegian Krone WisdomTree Dreyfus Polish Zloty Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Russian Ruble Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Singapore Dollar Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Swedish Krona WisdomTree Dreyfus Swiss Franc Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Taiwan Dollar Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Thai Baht Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Turkish Lira Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus BRIC Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Developed Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Asia Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Europe Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Latin America Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Gulf Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Oil Exporters Currency Fund That is some list. So as another example of what I saying in the video, if they do actually list the Icelandic krona fund and there is very little interest in the fund the payout stands to be quite high. WT runs into issues with the dividend from the fund not being that close to the index when a lot of assets pour in to that fund. If they seed the Icelandic krona fund with $X and only one person buys in then the yield is going to be in the teens. Of course the krona could drop in value and if only...

The Big Picture for the Week of August 31, 2008

The video is shot in Pololu Valley which is a few miles east of Hawi (pronounced Ha-vee) at the end of highway 270. Here is the list of currency ETFs filed for by WisdomTree according to IndexUniverse; WisdomTree Dreyfus Chilean Peso Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Czech Koruna Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Hong Kong Dollar Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Hungarian Forint Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Israeli Shekel Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Icelandic Krona Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Indonesian Rupiah Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Malaysian Ringgit Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Mexican Peso Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Norwegian Krone WisdomTree Dreyfus Polish Zloty Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Russian Ruble Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Singapore Dollar Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Swedish Krona WisdomTree Dreyfus Swiss Franc Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Taiwan Dollar Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Thai Baht Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Turkish Lira Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus BRIC Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Developed Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Asia Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Europe Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Latin America Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Gulf Currency Fund WisdomTree Dreyfus Oil Exporters Currency Fund That is some list. So as another example of what I saying in the video, if they do actually list the Icelandic krona fund and there is very little interest in the fund the payout stands to be quite high. WT runs into issues with the dividend from the fund not being that close to the index when a lot of assets pour in to that fund. If they seed the Icelandic krona fund with $X and only one person buys in then the yield is going to be in the teens. Of course the krona could drop in value and if only...