Allow Myself To …Introduce…..

Doing the right thing at crucial points in market history is by far the most difficult task investors will ever face.

How many times before has the market been scared and how many of those times has panicking been the right thing to do?

The time for meaningful action has long since passed.

Doing the wrong thing at times like this is how people alter their financial futures.

You have heard this before from many other people and you know it is true.

18 Comments

  1. Roger,

    Are you doing nothing or buying today?

    Reply
  2. Great post. Succinct and hammers the point.

    There are those who will panic and go to 100% cash now after having done nothing the past 12 months. I’ve read more then a few comments in various places why “this time is different” and the financial apocalypse is upon us.

    Reply
  3. I have been through this before in the past 40+ years. Best to do nothing in the short run. How about you Roger, do anything yesterday or today? I would guess not.

    Reply
  4. To quote Fox Mulder, “I Want To Believe.”

    But this morning, it looks like the VIX is at its highest point ever.

    This time isn’t different.

    This time isn’t different.

    This time isn’t different.

    (sigh)

    Reply
  5. Another day and no total financial collapse? Could our politicians have blown this a little out of proportion?

    I like Steven Colbert’s line: “if we were on the brink of financial collapse yesterday, we are ‘brinkier’ today”.

    My only regret about yesterday is that work got in the way of getting everything checked off of my shopping list 🙂

    I agree, buying is not for everyone (those close to retirement, weak stomachs, etc). To me, it’s like disciplining your children, it’s hard, but you know it’s the right thing to do.

    Reply
  6. I myself have been in mostly cash since last year, but if I had a large exposure to the markets I would still sell off a good percentage of my portfolio to cash after this next rally, and wait until the Wall Street Welfare bill is passed by congress.

    Paulson, the economic terrorist, was hoping for a bigger meltdown yesterday to scare congress into passing the bill. Let’s hope they don’t as it will only prolong the pain.

    http://tinyurl.com/4kjl7z

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

    Reply
  7. Hi Roger,,

    With gold topped, commod. dropping like rocks, bad earnings on our doorsteps,and a poor employment report about to be sprung and central banks suggesting poss. deflation coming,,,, kinda feels cash might just do the trick..

    Mac

    Reply
  8. I have no problem being 98% cash right now. I have averaged out selling on rallies without any panic at all. With the markets in arrhythmia, a good possibility of a global slowdown ahead, and the dollar on a temporary upswing, I think I will have plenty of buying opportunities in the coming months. I don’t think yesterday was the right moment.

    Jim

    Reply
  9. I’ve been meaning to ask about ultrashort and doubleshort ETFs and whether they are impacted by the new short rules, but there hasn’t been a post for me to remain on-topic, so I’m asking here. Are these still viable for shorting or have the new rules hampered the way they operate?

    Reply
  10. Jerome, there was a day or two where SDS was impacted. SKF was more impacted, they stopped creating shares for a while, not sure if or when they started creating units again, check the ProShares site.

    Alphaville rfers to Christopher Wood all the time. I believe he is far more pessimistic than most other people and has been for a long time.

    Hopefully he turns out to be wrong in terms of magnitude.

    Reply
  11. HM & Roger,
    Attached is another link to christopher wood whom is a well respected Asian market analyst. Says to avoid Europe and over emphasize the Pacific Region ex Japan, sound familiar Roger? I am struggling to find his Greed & Fear newsletter???

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aypoxb9.kfzw

    Reply
  12. I think it has to be paid for through CSLA

    Reply
  13. my friend is down 25% this year and may cash out of market.

    Reply
  14. well you will have a front row seat to his catastrophic mistake

    Reply
  15. My timing model hasn’t changed this week but it looks as though the groundwork is beind laid for a good 4th quarter. I’m looking for sentiment reversals and would like to see the Value Line Composite take out it’s 75 day moving average.

    Reply
  16. Roger,
    Sorry, off topic here however would appreciate your thoughts on these timing models such as the GTAA advocated by Mebane and/or Tom K? Thanks

    http://worldbeta.blogspot.com/

    Reply
  17. Timing models are not for me, I have difficulty putting faith in them. that is more about the way i think than the models themselves.

    Reply

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Allow Myself To …Introduce…..

Doing the right thing at crucial points in market history is by far the most difficult task investors will ever face.

How many times before has the market been scared and how many of those times has panicking been the right thing to do?

The time for meaningful action has long since passed.

Doing the wrong thing at times like this is how people alter their financial futures.

You have heard this before from many other people and you know it is true.

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published.

WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing