An Analogy

Pictured to the left is a batch of chocolate chip cookies I made yesterday. I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned this on the blog before but apparently I bake a hell of a cookie, seriously. This and barbecuing is as far as it goes but by many accounts the cookies are very good.

The key to them turning out, as I will tell anyone who asks, is that I follow the recipe exactly as written, the recipe came from a bag of Ghirardelli chocolate chips from Costco many years ago.

The recipe is simple and has a track record for success. Given the track record I am not inclined to mess with it or think I can outsmart the recipe with a little more sugar or a little less flour or whatever.

I think there is an investing analogy in there somewhere. If you see it, great if not the recipe is on the bag of chips and if I can make them, anyone can.

Happy New Year!

18 Comments

  1. And a prosperous new year to y’all as well.

    PS: My wife wants the recipe, care to publish here?

    Reply
  2. I agree you and I can not make a better cookie recipe than the one from the chef at ghirardelli, but that does not mean some one out there could not make a better cookie.

    But yes if you get an excellent recipe and your an amateur than follow it.

    Relating this to investing is tricky where is the excellent recipe that I am not suppose to deviate from?

    I can only think of two. I become a Bogle head and buy vanguard broad market etfs and hold them forever (I knew you would love that one 🙂

    Or I just buy Berkshire have faith in Warren Buffet and again hold it forever.

    Reply
  3. Roger,

    I have been a Random Roger follower for several years now. Your blog is one of my first reads of the day. Your willingness to share your insight with us is greatly appreciated.

    I wish you a happy and prosperous New Year.

    Reply
  4. BTW, I should have added something to the cookie analogy.

    Roger I do not agree with you on everything, but people could do a whole lot worse than incorporating some of your insight into their process

    Happy new year!

    Reply
  5. Thanks for the recipe and thanks for another excellent year of helpful and interesting blogs.

    A question: back on 11/11, you mentioned NORW, but said that you didn’t want to comment because you were writing a piece for TheStreet.com. I haven’t seen anything from you about NORW on either site. Can you give your readers some insights on this ETF?

    Thanks again.

    Reply
  6. thanks for all the new years wishes. sharing the recipe is no problem RW other than it is written on an index card but it is literally printed on the bag.

    For the NORW article click here.

    Reply
  7. I’ll second Greg’s comments. Your blog is my first read of the day. Many thanks Roger and have a terrific 2011!

    Reply
  8. Thanks for another great year Roger.
    Does this mean we should invest
    in cocoa? 🙂
    As for recipes,
    my grandfather baked a “killer”
    peanut butter cookie…(we
    can learn alot from the older
    generation…but his investments
    consisted of CDs…$100,000 in
    each bank and he was still saving
    $$$ until the day he pasted.)
    The depression permanently scared
    alot of folks.
    Do you have some general advice
    for us for 2011…like US stocks
    and precious metals etc.?

    Reply
  9. any sector ideas for next year?
    industrials and basic materials
    or…

    Reply
  10. Happy New Year to you as well, Roger. Since your investing recipe calls for a little more foreign, I presume your cookie recipe calls for a little more chocolate, too. My kind of cookie!

    Thanks for sharing your insights this year.

    Reply
  11. Ah, google: Does this look familiar? Sure made my wife’s eyes light up (and my heart valves flutter [g])

    The Ultimate Chocolate Chip Cookie

    * 11 1/2 ounce(s) 60% Cacao Bittersweet Chocolate Chips
    * 2 1/4 cup(s) unsifted flour
    * 1 teaspoon(s) baking soda
    * 1/2 teaspoon(s) teaspoon salt
    * 1 cup(s) (2 sticks) butter
    * 3/4 cup(s) sugar
    * 3/4 cup(s) packed brown sugar
    * 2 eggs
    * 2 teaspoon(s) vanilla
    * 1 cup(s) chopped walnuts or pecans (optional)

    Directions
    Preheat oven to 375ºF. Stir flour with baking soda and salt; set aside. In large mixer bowl, cream butter with sugar, brown sugar, eggs, and vanilla. Gradually blend dry mixture into creamed mixture. Stir in nuts and chocolate chips. Drop 1 tablespoon of dough per cookie onto ungreased cookie sheets.

    Bake at 375ºF for 9 to 11 minutes or until golden brown.

    Reply
  12. that is pretty much it although the amount of chips is not worded the same way. my version says 2 cups–maybe that is the same i have been shoveling two feet of snow all morning

    Reply
  13. Ah yes Roger, but if you just pack in about 3-5% more brown sugar…

    I kept my secret from my wife for about five years, with the explanation that if I told her, she’d have no reason to continue to stay married to me. Well, five years later she makes cookies almost as good as mine and we’re still married!

    Have a Happy 2011,

    -Bill

    Reply
  14. thank you Bill

    Happy New Year to you too!

    Reply
  15. But the banksters insist we need more cowbell……

    http://tinyurl.com/2eoath7

    Someone needs to throw these folks out of the kitchen before they burn our cookies….

    Reply
  16. Roger, Here’s wishing you and your followers a very Healthy, Happy and prosperous New Year. – Richard

    Reply
  17. Happy 2011 to Roger and all fellow readers of this wonderful blog of investment and economic advice and opinions.

    Reply

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An Analogy

Pictured to the left is a batch of chocolate chip cookies I made yesterday. I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned this on the blog before but apparently I bake a hell of a cookie, seriously. This and barbecuing is as far as it goes but by many accounts the cookies are very good.

The key to them turning out, as I will tell anyone who asks, is that I follow the recipe exactly as written, the recipe came from a bag of Ghirardelli chocolate chips from Costco many years ago.

The recipe is simple and has a track record for success. Given the track record I am not inclined to mess with it or think I can outsmart the recipe with a little more sugar or a little less flour or whatever.

I think there is an investing analogy in there somewhere. If you see it, great if not the recipe is on the bag of chips and if I can make them, anyone can.

Happy New Year!

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published.

WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing