Lost Decades?

Cam Hui had a post up exploring the current state of affairs in Europe as he ponders the ingredients for a lost decade.

I would submit that if there are seeds for a lost decade then what it would actually be is a second lost decade. Over the last ten years the DAX is up 20%, Spain is up a little less, the CAC in France is down a hair more than 20% and the Netherlands are down about 35%. While we’re at the FTSE 100 is up single digits.

Things not like about Europe include that the continent does not offer much diversification compared to other parts of the world, the demographics are lousy, the fundamentals stink in most places and threaten the one place that may not stink (Germany). Maybe Poland, Slovakia, Estonia and Turkey (if it every really gets in they way it wants) can help turn the fortunes around but there are far better foreign destinations to choose from.

For this you need to look at the country indexes not the ETFs which have all done better because the US dollar has gone down against the Euro.

That is Mount Rainier on our way to take Pep to the U-W training facility in Eatonville. I took that one with my phone. Thank you for all the suggestions on yesterday’s post.

5 Comments

  1. Last week I decided this correction would not reach the lows I was expecting and have since gotten re invested.

    I think we shall see another 50% decline in equities. My problem is I can not determine if it will be 3 months from now or 3 years from now.

    I recognized the bull when it started, but I have no idea on how high a market will go on excess borrowing and printing money. Oddly enough I have decreased my foreign equity holdings. I just do not like the disconnect and lack of correlation that can occur between markets. I think I can read our markets better (I hope 🙂

    From 666 we are up just under 100%. How high will this bull take us and how long? Wish I had the answer. I am aggressively situated in this market but when I read some people predicting big numbers for the S&P and others pointing to bunches of bad debts all over the world I just take a pause.

    For now it just does not look like it is ending anytime soon even if it will eventually end badly.

    SEG

    Reply
  2. No one knows what the future holds. You are correct 3 months 3 years. However I too have gone into a special situation takeover target. I hope it materializes. If not I am very quick to bail out.
    Best ,
    Jeff from Milan, Italy

    Reply
  3. Pep was really fortunate to have you and your wife invest the time to find him a suitable home.

    I wish folks would take that much interest in their children. The world would be a much better place.

    Have a safe trip,
    Sam

    Reply
  4. At least is not bad as Japan.

    Reply

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Lost Decades?

Cam Hui had a post up exploring the current state of affairs in Europe as he ponders the ingredients for a lost decade.

I would submit that if there are seeds for a lost decade then what it would actually be is a second lost decade. Over the last ten years the DAX is up 20%, Spain is up a little less, the CAC in France is down a hair more than 20% and the Netherlands are down about 35%. While we’re at the FTSE 100 is up single digits.

Things not like about Europe include that the continent does not offer much diversification compared to other parts of the world, the demographics are lousy, the fundamentals stink in most places and threaten the one place that may not stink (Germany). Maybe Poland, Slovakia, Estonia and Turkey (if it every really gets in they way it wants) can help turn the fortunes around but there are far better foreign destinations to choose from.

For this you need to look at the country indexes not the ETFs which have all done better because the US dollar has gone down against the Euro.

That is Mount Rainier on our way to take Pep to the U-W training facility in Eatonville. I took that one with my phone. Thank you for all the suggestions on yesterday’s post.

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published.

WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing