Big Ideas

My post from the other day about prospects for US stock being grim drew a lot of comments on the Seeking Alpha version of the post. I answered several questions including a couple from David Jackson. I thought I’d post the content here, I think the format will make sense; RN: First as far as the portfolio, when i first started writing in 2004 I was very public about have clients about 30% in foreign with the expectation that it would increase slowly to at least 50% by the start of the new (now this) decade and that is where we are. I expect to further increase the allocation to foreign as we move forward. To the person who says you can’t hide in foreign while the US is going down that is half right. During panics and otherwise fast declines yes foreign markets should be expected to go down too. However over a longer period of time, not true. In the last decade the SPX went down 24% on a price basis there were countless foreign markets that had normal returns for the decade or better than normal as the US dropped–they carried on without us. If your time horizon is a year then you probably should not own stocks but over a long period this has worked and I believe will continue to do so. Go to Bespoke’s website for numbers on how foreign markets did in the last decade. DJ: Which foreign markets are you allocating assets to? Are you looking at demographic factors in foreign markets as well? RN: David, our list of countries we...

Sunday Morning Coffee

We had a crazy wildfire here yesterday that took two of us two an half hours to hike to up some hellacious hills. We found the fire for the Forest Service who came shortly after we arrived, we helped fight it for between two and three hours and then hiked back, it was much shorter on the way back. It was a lightning strike and the picture is the tree on the way down after being cut by the Forest Service. This was the most physically demanding incident I’ve ever gone on and I am thrilled to have gone–now that it is over– but it jacked up my Saturday so I don’t have a regular blog post for...

Sunday Morning Coffee

We had a crazy wildfire here yesterday that took two of us two an half hours to hike to up some hellacious hills. We found the fire for the Forest Service who came shortly after we arrived, we helped fight it for between two and three hours and then hiked back, it was much shorter on the way back. It was a lightning strike and the picture is the tree on the way down after being cut by the Forest Service. This was the most physically demanding incident I’ve ever gone on and I am thrilled to have gone–now that it is over– but it jacked up my Saturday so I don’t have a regular blog post for...

The Big Picture for the Week of August 28, 2011

The first picture is from the Midway Geyser Basin, the second one is of a little restaurant in Silver Gate, MT which is at the start of the Bear Tooth Highway and the third one is near Jenny Lake looking at the Grand Tetons. The S&P 500 went up about 44 points in a shade over two hours yesterday. That is not typical behavior in a healthy...

The Big Picture for the Week of August 28, 2011

The first picture is from the Midway Geyser Basin, the second one is of a little restaurant in Silver Gate, MT which is at the start of the Bear Tooth Highway and the third one is near Jenny Lake looking at the Grand Tetons. The S&P 500 went up about 44 points in a shade over two hours yesterday. That is not typical behavior in a healthy...