February 29 Take Two

If all went well we left New Zealand last night we flew to the Cook Islands where we will be until this weekend when we return to Arizona. New Zealand and the Cook Islands are 23 hours apart on the clock but as a practical matter are only one hour apart. We spent the entire day of February 29 in Auckland before taking off around 7:30 pm. We landed a little after midnight in Rarotonga on February 29 thus having the day again–of course we lost a day coming over here but it is just an odd thing of how the world works.

Anyhoo, the housing market still stinks. The latest Case Shiller numbers showed prices “3.8% in December from a month earlier and dropped 4% year-over-year.” With things like this I am not necessarily the one to make the case for why things will get better or worse so much as trying to understand the macro picture, take in both arguments and decide which way to lean in the portfolio.

This describes an active decision based on an assessment of current events so as should always be mentioned; an active portfolio is a series of decisions of which some will be correct and some incorrect. The portfolio doesn’t need every decision to be correct in order to succeed. No one can be right with every decision.

I do share my assessment (this is different than trying to make an economic argument) on these sorts of things and my assessment has been the same for a long time which is that this was the worst financial crisis in 80 (so they tell us) and so it will take many years to fix. The Great Depression left scars for decades and it seems plausible that the recent crisis could do the same.

The reason to bring this up is as a reminder. Certain economic data points have improved over the last few months and the S&P 500 seems pretty intent on going to at least 1400 but the economy is unlikely to be truly healthy without a healthy housing market and healthy jobs market.

One final personal note on our New Zealand trip. Among other things we did, we stopped at just about every fire station along the way (much to Joellyn’s dismay) to take pictures and hopefully swap blue shirts. I struck out the entire trip as the departments in the countryside are all volunteer. Finally I had success at the Auckland Central Fire Station on Pitt St. and got probably the neatest shirt I’ve ever traded for (I think I have about 8 in my collection). Thanks to Scott at the station for making the trade.

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February 29 Take Two

If all went well we left New Zealand last night we flew to the Cook Islands where we will be until this weekend when we return to Arizona. New Zealand and the Cook Islands are 23 hours apart on the clock but as a practical matter are only one hour apart. We spent the entire day of February 29 in Auckland before taking off around 7:30 pm. We landed a little after midnight in Rarotonga on February 29 thus having the day again–of course we lost a day coming over here but it is just an odd thing of how the world works.

Anyhoo, the housing market still stinks. The latest Case Shiller numbers showed prices “3.8% in December from a month earlier and dropped 4% year-over-year.” With things like this I am not necessarily the one to make the case for why things will get better or worse so much as trying to understand the macro picture, take in both arguments and decide which way to lean in the portfolio.

This describes an active decision based on an assessment of current events so as should always be mentioned; an active portfolio is a series of decisions of which some will be correct and some incorrect. The portfolio doesn’t need every decision to be correct in order to succeed. No one can be right with every decision.

I do share my assessment (this is different than trying to make an economic argument) on these sorts of things and my assessment has been the same for a long time which is that this was the worst financial crisis in 80 (so they tell us) and so it will take many years to fix. The Great Depression left scars for decades and it seems plausible that the recent crisis could do the same.

The reason to bring this up is as a reminder. Certain economic data points have improved over the last few months and the S&P 500 seems pretty intent on going to at least 1400 but the economy is unlikely to be truly healthy without a healthy housing market and healthy jobs market.

One final personal note on our New Zealand trip. Among other things we did, we stopped at just about every fire station along the way (much to Joellyn’s dismay) to take pictures and hopefully swap blue shirts. I struck out the entire trip as the departments in the countryside are all volunteer. Finally I had success at the Auckland Central Fire Station on Pitt St. and got probably the neatest shirt I’ve ever traded for (I think I have about 8 in my collection). Thanks to Scott at the station for making the trade.

Submit a Comment

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WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing