Bizarre Reader Comment

In yesterdays blog post I mentioned Pfizer’s (PFE) travails of the last few years and thought that a reader at Seeking Alpha would make a comment about being happy that their stocks stayed down. As requested;

In regards to your Pfizer example, I personally hope the DG stocks I own lag for ten years at a low share price – so I can scoop up even more shares for a better price! 

My (unedited) reply to this person that is as of yet unanswered;

what about PFE? It, like quite a few others cut its dividend several years after it peaked. What forward looking analysis do you do to avoid this happening to your holdings? PFE had fallen 50% behind XLV before it cut its dividend. Your comment implies you don’t care about this scenario (even if you never owned PFE), is that what you are saying? Lagging for ten years will very frequently imply there is a problem (not every time of course) but you don’t care until the dividend is cut?

I doubt that is what you mean but that is what your comment says and maybe you do mean that.  

Buying a stock at a relatively good value is different than hoping a stock performs poorly for a decade as this one commenter appears to be hoping for. 

9 Comments

  1. Roger,
    there is a book called the living company. It speaks about the life cycle of a company. A company as an average age of 50 years – do not recall exact – But one must be aware of of the product it sells management, ect. It is not that you just buy and prey. There is a need for lot of analysis and it is not easy for long term inv. Roger, you call top down and others might do other things, but the process is not easy and in 10 years anything can happen and usually for the worse. One should look at w.Buffett for good successfull stock picking and he made a few mistakes along the way.
    Jeff from nyc

    Reply
  2. Buying a stock at a relatively good value is different than hoping a stock performs poorly for a decade as this one commenter appears to be hoping for.

    I’ve noted this bizarre commentary/thought process myself. I’ve run into it frequently on the Motley Fool boards especially amongst self-professed (intrinsic)value investors. I think there is alot going on psychologically with this thought process. Most importantly, confusing the ends with the means. The objective is to produce profits, make your account grow, not to be able to claim you purchasesed an “undervalued” stock. I think confirmation bias is present as well in the inability to admit a mistake….the thought becomes its just another opportunity to keep buying low for that eventual gain at some indeterminate time.

    Reply
  3. Nice comment Mike C

    Reply
  4. Roger: As a long time reader of your column, I would prefer you stick to market analysis and top down strategy information rather than picking nits with your readers.

    Also, with rare exception, I am even less interested in your firefighting exploits. All that does is make me think you’d rather do that than write this column.

    Reply
  5. Exploring thought processes both sound and flawed is something I’ve always done here as I believe it helps us refine our own thought process.

    As for the rest of your comment, can’t help you there.

    Reply
  6. I never ran into an investor wishing to invest in a “value trap” until this person. I think he might be taking Peter Lynch a little too far.

    But then again, I also get confused by the macro top down guys and their prediction based strategies, with nary a mention on valuation.

    Keep up the Walker FD commentary. I would also like to hear your feelings on forest management.

    The Rim country is a tinderbox. I am praying that we get through the dry lightning, and knucklehead camper season.

    Reply
  7. Respectfully, a differing opinion from Anon 10:13 from another Anon commenter (and we are all certainly entitled to our opinions). I like knowing about Roger’s background, interests, investment philosophy, and some idea of this past (recent more important than ancient) investing results/record; and to suggest that Roger is not dedicated to this blog is absurd in the extreme (almost daily columns since 2004, and its free!). I am not, for example, a current investor in BRK because those attributes of Mr Buffet are so opposed to mine in those areas. I fully intend to become an investor in RRGR when it becomes available at least partially because those attributes in Roger more align with mine. Roger, I hope you will keep up the blog, keep us knowledgeable of the whole man behind the blog, and that we will all become rich (or at least be better than we otherwise would be) via your ETF. Thank you.

    Reply
  8. This is Anon 12:37 again. Let me second the comments from Anon 12:20, especially the part about getting “through the dry lightning, and knucklehead camper season.” I live in Colorado, and we are burning up here; several forest fires that have made the national news and there is constant smoke residue in the air (really bad for those with respiratory concerns).

    Reply
  9. thanks for the kind words and the well wished regarding visitors who son’t know any better (the actions of these folks are a threat anywhere).

    As far as the blogging, it is a lot of fun and serves a purpose for our business (keeping clients who choose to read it in a very close information loop).

    One point I have tried to convey over the years is the extent to which a balanced life helps for more productive investing. Obviously this is something I strive for in my life.

    Reply

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published.

WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing

Bizarre Reader Comment

In yesterdays blog post I mentioned Pfizer’s (PFE) travails of the last few years and thought that a reader at Seeking Alpha would make a comment about being happy that their stocks stayed down. As requested;

In regards to your Pfizer example, I personally hope the DG stocks I own lag for ten years at a low share price – so I can scoop up even more shares for a better price! 

My (unedited) reply to this person that is as of yet unanswered;

what about PFE? It, like quite a few others cut its dividend several years after it peaked. What forward looking analysis do you do to avoid this happening to your holdings? PFE had fallen 50% behind XLV before it cut its dividend. Your comment implies you don’t care about this scenario (even if you never owned PFE), is that what you are saying? Lagging for ten years will very frequently imply there is a problem (not every time of course) but you don’t care until the dividend is cut?

I doubt that is what you mean but that is what your comment says and maybe you do mean that.  

Buying a stock at a relatively good value is different than hoping a stock performs poorly for a decade as this one commenter appears to be hoping for. 

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published.

WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing