Investors Say No To GMOs?

The title is a play on words for my latest post which looks at the large drop in AUM at Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co which is commonly referred to as GMO. From the post; The way I have worded this before is that I think they draw the wrong conclusion about what markets might do. Markets have a tendency to go up more often than they don’t and while that could change at some point it has proven true up to this point. Unique to the last ten years has been the desperate measures by the Treasury Department (at least at the start of the crisis) and the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy since the crisis. The results with respect to the economy were not so great but appeared to send equity prices much higher, defying economic theory along the way. Please click through to read the entire post. We’ve been having some amazing sunrises here lately. This one lit up the inside of our house like an Instagram filter. Beach houses in Malibu Harley Davidson from our LA trip last...

Dow 20,000! Not Yet!

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; It has been a while since we last checked in on the Mexican peso. The dollar has continued to work its way higher against the peso. There was a huge jump in USDMXN (dollar up against the peso) immediately after the election which leveled off for a time before jumping more than 2% last week in the face of several corporate announcements of bringing jobs back from Mexico or not sending them there in the first place. Currency volatility has ramped up in recent months in a way markets have not seen in quite some time. This has the potential to impact other markets as we saw with struggling US multinationals’ earnings reports in 2016 and it also creates a headwind for US investors looking for foreign equity exposure as they are also buying the currency when they buy the foreign stocks. Please click through to read the entire update. Old San Francisco Engine 39 parked at an auction house in Palm Springs. An old Chevy at a car show in Los Angeles Lifeguard Tower at Zuma Beach in...

The Beginning Of The End Of Hedge Funds As We’ve Known Them?

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at the recent troubles that hedge funds have been having. From the post; Now is not the end of hedge funds as we know them. The fees have been going down for a while, assets may have flowed out in 2016 but at some point hedge funds will have a run of doing relatively well and money will flow back in. In past blog posts we’ve chronicled pensions allocating to, and then away from hedge funds. It is at least in part the behavior of chasing returns and it is a good bet that the behavior will repeat. Please click through to read the entire post. Taken by my wife as we drove along side Taken in Los Angeles at the beginning of...

2016: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Perhaps the wildest ride of all was the one endured by West Texas Intermediate Crude. Continuing the crash that started in 2015, crude spend the first quarter in the $20’s-$30’s before making its way, in fits and starts, back above $50. We will refrain from attempting to predict what crude oil might do but in terms of sustainable pricing, we saw a low last year that was not sustainable for production just as we saw a high in 2008 that was not sustainable for production. Should the agreed upon OPEC/non-OPEC cuts be maintained that would create at least a modest tailwind for a sustainable price level. Please click through to read the entire update. A 60’s era Chevy Impala A Harley Davidson owned by a Raiders fan Los Angeles County Engine 70 in Malibu...