Mixed Signals From Higher Equity Prices

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Thursday was a rough one for companies that stand to benefit from possible infrastructure spending under the new administration over concerns that these plans may not be implemented as soon as originally expected. Steel stocks were hit hard with declines ranging from high single digits to low double digits for the day. These stocks, as part of the materials sector tend to be volatile but also cyclical barometers. Where we are talking about mixed signals, this would be a negative. Please click through to read the entire update. 1945 Chevy Pickup Truck Close up of the grille Park Avenue in Arches National...

Don’t Make The Same Mistake As Norway

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at asset allocation including the the possibility that the Government Pension Fund of Norway might increase its equity allocation from 60% to 75%. From the post; While most people need the growth that goes with a normal allocation to equities (maybe 50-70% is normal?), what Norway is considering seems like a 60 year old, wanting to retire at 65, increasing their allocation from 60% to 75% in hopes of catching up. While that sort of maneuver can of course work, the consequences of being wrong, really wrong, like summer 2007 wrong, would be ruinous. Please click through to read the entire post. Nothing like a classic Corvette parked in the woods. This was just parked out here the other...

A Little Bumpier, But Higher!

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The IPO for Saudi Aramco seems to be running into some snags related to restructuring the company to separate out the Saudi government from the oil business. For now the expectation is that the listing will occur in 2018. It will be a huge company, likely to appear in many broad and narrow based ETFs. Please click through to read the entire update. Monochrome engine panel Snowy hike on Sunday with Nelly Monument...

The Blurry Line Between Active & Passive

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at a well written article that I think asks the wrong question. From the post; The first bullet point about not market timing is the one that isn’t active but could be. Rebalancing is arguably an active endeavor. A truly passive investor would let his allocation drift wherever (a point made by Cullen Roche). You may not market time but you might time yourself. There is a school of thought that says a year or two before you plan to retire you should reduce equity exposure to reduce the impact of the bad luck that goes with a bear market starting six months after you retire. If that resonates with you then that is an active endeavor. Please click through to read the entire post. A BMW in front of my gym from the other day Roslyn, WA, aka Cicely, AK where Northern Exposure was filmed, picture taken in 2011 Skateboard rack in San...

Political Volatility? Equities Still Don’t Care

The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; Anecdotally we have had several inquiries about whether now is the time to jump out for fear of a large decline. We would note the historical tendency for fast declines to snap back quickly, like the Brexit reaction, and the historical tendency for bear markets to roll over very slowly over a period of several months. Guessing is never the answer. The time to get out, if you are even one to take defensive action, is whenever the strategy you unemotionally chose as being the best one for you tells you to get out. Please click through to read the entire update; Lockers with structure fire gear (turn outs) and wildland gear A Scania fire truck from Auckland that I filtered the hell out of Soccer at University of Phoenix in Glendale, AZ...