Don’t Fall For The Fallacy Of Explanation

This week’s Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following;

We are fascinated by various spread relationships that serve as risk proxies. Long time market participants may recall the TED spread, also in years past AUDCHF, Australian dollar versus the Swiss franc, was just such a measure where, put in today’s terms AUDCHF moving up was viewed as the equivalent of risk on and if the cross moved down it was risk off. YTD AUDCHF is up almost 2.5% but it is down about 3.5% since late February. Dennis Gartman has talked lately about EURCHF playing a similar role but lately the market broadly has been following the yield spread between the French OAT and the German bund. As the spread gets wider it is thought that political uncertainty in the European Union is increasing while a narrowing spread is a sign of decreased political uncertainty. At the close Friday, going into the French election, the spread was at 69 basis points. It had been as high as 85 basis points in February. For some context, this spread has spent most of the last year in the 30-40 basis point range.

Please click through to read the entire post.

In the last year I’ve become very interested in taking pictures of trophy tricks (also known as trick trucks). The context of my pictures has been desert racing (long races). Over the weekend I went to see them in short track racing in the Lucas Oil Off Road Racing Series. On the short track these trucks are known as Pro 2 which are 2WD, there is also Pro 4 which are 4WD and a couple of other classes. The action is crazy, it is loud, the trucks fly (literally), fenders and hoods flop around and then fly off; it really is a lot of fun. The economics of it hard to figure. The big trucks cost several hundred thousand dollars and the hoods and fenders regularly fly off and get destroyed. They travel with semi-trailers, they make massive work shops, have huge crews, several of the bigger names race in more than one class but the prize money appears to be quite small, nowhere near enough to maintain the operation. There is sponsorship money which might be how all of this is paid for, I am not sure yet but it will be fun to try to learn about.

Flying

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More flying

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One of my “go-to” color effects

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