“Head-Snapping” Reversals?

This week’s Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The 200 day moving average (DMA) is viewed as being a significant technical indicator. Our take on this is that the 200 day moving average is a signal for the health of demand for an asset. When the price is above the 200 DMA, demand can thought of as being healthy regardless of whatever else is going on in the world. Likewise, when price is below the 200 DMA demand is unhealthy. While the consequence for gold’s unhealthy demand over the last few months was negligible, the recent trading represents an improvement. Please click through to read the entire update. The 2017 Prescott Basin Ops Drill was held over the long weekend. This is the big, annual, inter-agency wildland fire exercise that I have been involved in planning going back to 2010. This year there was more than 100 participants each day. There were firefighters from two federal agencies, one state agency and what I think was seven fire departments. I am very lucky that they let a volunteer be part of the planning process (amusingly, I am the longest tenured member of the planning group). Below are a few pictures; Walker Fire (my department) Patrol 80 in the foreground as the neighboring department’s engine drives by. Prescott National Forest Engine 930 Shot of the morning briefing that hopefully gives some scale to the the size of the...

Don’t Let Performance Haunt You Forever

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; A well thought out strategy focuses on longer time periods like an entire stock market cycle with goal of having enough money when it is needed. Someone who retires at 63 with enough money doesn’t say to themselves “while I am glad I have enough, those two quarters in a row that I lagged the market when I was 56 are going to haunt me forever.” As silly as that sounds, if the S&P 500 goes up 9% this year and someone is angry about only being up 6%, it is the same thing. Please click through to read the entire post. Military themed, 6100 Class Trophy Truck Corvette from Kihei The front end of a Trophy Truck taken with a fisheye...

Blame It On The Rain

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; In news that harkens back a little over two years ago when the Swiss National Bank depegged the franc versus the euro, the Czech National Bank depegged the koruna from the euro, removing the floor. The cross is quoted as EURCZK so this move allows the euro to drop against CZK if that is where the market takes it which seems likely as it fell 1.6% on Thursday when the news hit. Bespoke Investment Group had a funny quote noting that “this floor removal looks nothing like the chaos of the SNB’s in 2015” because the CNB effectively telegraphed the move. We don’t mention the Czech Republic very often but it is an interesting investment destination that we will try to explore in a later commentary but for a little context its 10 Year Note yields just 1.02%, it rose eleven basis points on the currency news. Please click through to read the entire update. An old Ford hotrod in Kihei, Maui Over the weekend I learned about a new (to me) Trophy Truck class called 6100 Class which include the “61” in the truck’s number as seen below. If I have it right, and I may not, although they look the same as the regular trophy trucks they have to be a little lighter, but not as light as the Trophy Lite class. If anyone has better or more specific info, please leave a comment. Another one from the car show in...

Avoiding Groupthink Yield Chasing

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; A few years back, dividend and dividend growth investing dominated the content at Seeking Alpha. Seadrill was one of the favorites of this cohort. It has always been a debt heavy company with decent cash flow and it paid a very high dividend for many years. It ceased paying a dividend in 2014 just as the stock imploded, dropping by 2/3rds in a very short period of time. Please click through to read the entire post. The collage is a Lasalle taken at a car show we stumbled across in Kihei, Maui last week. Clark County Fire Department in Las Vegas One of the more colorful trophy trucks at the Mint 400...

Brexit Is On The Clock

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; We all know the cliche that markets like to climb a wall of worry but it is not clear that the equity market is all that worried right now. The President has had some setbacks and his overall approval numbers are low but the University of Michigan survey reveals that confidence that Trump is the right person for the economy are shockingly high, just under 30%, relative to the study’s history. A point we have made here many times is that sticking to an investment strategy is far more important than guessing whether Trump turns out to be good, bad or indifferent for anything. This was true under his predecessor and will be true under his successor. Please click through to read the entire update. Went for a hike near the start of the Road to Hana and stumbled across a grove of Rainbow Eucalyptus trees. The lifeguard tower at Baldwin Beach The town of Paia at...