The Bond Bear Has Started…Again!

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Bill Gross declared the start of the bond bear market…again. Barron’s made the case for the yield on the ten year rising up to 2.75%. While predicting interesting rates is a loser’s game, such a gentile lift would be surprise us, we might expect a more extreme outcome in either direction as opposed to just 20 basis points. If a bear market has truly started, we would expect higher yields. Or if something triggers a recession we would expect much lower yields. Take this as a call for volatility, not a guess of what rates will actually do. Please click through to read the entire update. And also please check out my latest thoughts about robo advisors at the Maven, I dissect a robo...

Maven Recap

Below are some of the posts I’ve written over the last few days at TheMaven. Please consider registering at TheMaven and then following my page. Thank you! A practical application of Warren Buffett’s advice. A look at some wild, wild action in the ETF industry. Central Bank hedge funds,...

Can The S&P 500 Really Go To 3700?

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; In reaction to Grantham, Rudolf E. Havenstein (this is a historical figure, so it is an anonymous account) jokingly Tweeted that old people should own the cryptocurrency Ripple, a Chinese internet stock, one of those companies that changed their names to include the word blockchain and then set fire to any cash left over. Please click through to read the entire post. Here’s a bonus post from my page at TheMaven about Harvard’s foray into trading volatility....

Blog Post Recap

The weekly Market Update I write for AdvisorShares is posted and includes the following; Interest rates have generally been moving higher since the FOMC last met and raised rates and the market seems to be taking it at its intended word for three more hikes in 2018. The yield on the US Ten Year Treasury Note closed Friday at 2.47%. The yield on the Two Year US Treasury has also been going up and doing so at a faster rate than the ten year, causing the curve to flatten some. We’ve touched on this in past updates and now the spread stands at 51 basis points. The curve flattening may or may not lead to an inversion. The trend to flatten is not problematic it is the inversion that is problematic as it impedes access to capital which is recessionary. It may never invert or it might but markets historically have done well as the curve has flattened. We will sound the alarm very loudly if the curve inverts, tell you why it won’t be different but as we have said before, the curve isn’t inverted until it is inverted. Incidentally, Jeff Gundlach Tweeted that at 1.95%, the two year yields more than the S&P 500 which it has not done since 2008. Please click through to read the entire update. Recapping some of the posts on my page at TheMaven; An analogy comparing the Dakar Rally to Bitcoin Understanding the weighting of the tech sector in the S&P 500 How to make yourself antifragile in the face of middle aged job loss Solving inequality from the bottom up...

Random Roger Round Up

My latest post at Alpha Baskets looks at the extent to which your “retirement number” is hokum and includes the following; For many years in these posts I have consistently said that having a goal can be useful but your number, your actual number is what you end up with, not what a website or advisor told you 30 years ago. What you end up is with your reality. If you’re 66, have $788,000 and want to retire, then can you make that work? Great if you can but if you can’t then something has to give. Either you don’t retire, you downsize your lifestyle, or you take a middle ground of working one way or another in retirement. The other day a podcast with James Altucher and Nassim Taleb started making the rounds. I did a lengthy write up on their conversation with Part I and Part II of my writeup having been published on my page at TheMaven. Please check out both, Part III should be up...