Has The Bear Arrived?

I initiated defensive action in client accounts today with a small purchase. You can read about the trade and my reasoning as to why I believe the odds that a bear market has started have increased. A few pictures from Kauai last...

Latest posts at TheMaven

I’ve had a lot going on lately. I have resigned from AdvisorShares (I will have more on that soon) but have still been doing a lot of writing at TheMaven. Some of my recent posts include; A humorous take on hedge funds. A new look at the permanent portfolio. Whether UBI is insane or brilliant. Currently we are in Kauai doing some hiking, having a tough time finding beaches (the ones we usually go to here have been rendered unsafe for now due to the floods in Hanalei). But in the meantime here are some pictures from the hikes we have done so far, some of the scenery and of course a fire truck. From Sleeping Giant Trail that starts out in Kapa’a Awa’awapuhi Trail lookout in Kokee State Park near Waimea Canyon. Part of Waimea Canyon on Highway 550. Bali Hai near sunset. Fire...

Final Random Thoughts

I have resigned from AdvisorShares effective April 30th. This is my last regular blog post at Alpha Baskets, although I will be writing one more weekly Market Update next Monday. I will of course still be posting at TheMaven, Seeking Alpha and of course here at randomroger.com. From the post; This will be my final post here at Alpha Baskets, I am moving on from AdvisorShares after a little over four years. For my parting shot I wanted to try to summarize some of the bigger picture ideas that we’ve discussed here and tie them together on my way out the door. And from my page at TheMaven; Has a bear market started? Is active management dead?...

Markets Don’t Close 4/20 On A High

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Barron’s devoted a lot of pixels to the latest goings on with the slope of the yield curve. Earlier in the week the 2-10 treasury spread got close to 40 basis points before widening out to 49 basis points at the end of the week. This is something we have been closely following here for months. It is important to understand at a basic level why yield curve dynamics are so important. When the curve is positively sloped, which is the normal relationship, then access to capital is easier from the standpoint that lending money is a profitable endeavor for the banks. Accessing capital is crucial for growth, plant expansion, capacity expansion and so on. When the yield curve inverts, borrowing money as a means of accessing capital becomes harder to do thus it can be contractionary for the economy. And from my page at TheMaven; Can means testing fix Social Security? Why I volunteer. Retirees who regret...

When Knowing What Will Happen Isn’t Enough

My latest post at Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; As I write this post on Monday afternoon Bitcoin is just under $6800. At that figure Yahoo Finance has it down 60% from its early January high. Obviously, people were buying at/near the highs. How many of those folks are looking back at merely a bad trade and how many have been crushed by over allocating to something that is down 60%? And from my page at TheMaven; Ben Carlson takes down the 200 DMA; I respond. Speaking of TheMaven, I am up in British Columbia for a conference with TheMaven. We landed in Vancouver last night, up to Whistler now until Friday and then back to Vancouver until Sunday. The view from our Airbnb last night in Vancouver. Deep Cove...