Game Planning Another Lost Decade

My latest post at Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; Meb Faber Tweeted out portfolio return expectations from various market participants looking out over the next ten years. Vanguard was at the low end looking for 4.5%, the “average investor” was in the middle at 10.2% and hedge funds think they will generate 13.0%. Depending on who you read you can find expectations in the three’s as well. Please click through to read the entire...

This Week’s ETF Maven & Random Roger Posts

The weekly market update is posted at Alpha Baskets and looks at the huge treasury auction and the poor returns from Greenlight Capital. Last week at Alpha Baskets I took a look at dilemma of depriving yourself today for a retirement with many unknowns. And from over at TheMaven; A look at whether Dennis Gartman really blew up betting on a blockchain stock. Hedging your portfolio incorrectly can make it much worse. The latest from the Walker Fire Department and how volunteering will enhance your health and your retirement....

The Latest Random Roger Posts

The weekly market update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; We think increased volatility of volatility could be a net positive that perhaps indicates complacency has been shaken out of the market. Save for the last year or so, a little bit of nervousness has been good for equities. From my page at TheMaven; A look at multi-factor sector funds. The role of volatility in portfolio...

It Was A Bad Week For Volatility

My latest post for Alpha Baskets takes a look at the recent crash….and snapback. The dip/correction/crash of the last couple of weeks has provided a useful litmus test for certain alternative strategies, it has reminded us how risky some of the more complicated strategies can be and reminded us that equities are not a one-way trade; after nine years of going up, maybe after peaking at 2872 the path to 3000 on the S&P 500 or even 4000 includes a trip down to 2000 first. And please remember to check out my page at TheMaven....

Volatility Is Back in Town and It’s Angry

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets is posted an includes the following; The CBOE Volatility Index took center stage last week with very dramatic action Monday and Tuesday. Monday, the VIX jumped over 100%, bringing an end to the one way nature of the short volatility trade. VIX had been going down for so long that a couple of the exchanged traded products became very popular for their massive gains. You may have heard the story of a Target employee to turned his life savings into a $13 million fortune by shorting the VIX via one of the ETPs. On Monday the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN, one of the two big ETPs had an event acceleration, effectively terminating the product. Per the prospectus, a single day rise in VIX of 80% would allow the issuer to cancel the product, which they are choosing to do. There were other funds to similarly blow up and there were estimates floating around of several trillion dollars in various short volatility trades that all blew up at once and that amount was enough, some say, to contribute to the decline in equities. And from my page at TheMaven, the WSJ tried to blame risk parity for the recent decline and while I don’t want to allocate to risk parity I think there are some things to learn from...