Is The Market Frustrated?

For months now the US equity market has been churning violently in the same general range without having made much progress. This type of action can be a source of frustration for investors. Over the years the comments on this blog have been something of a sentiment gauge although not infallible. There have been times like late 2008 and early 2009 where a lot of frustration and even hostility showed up in the comments of the blog, in the comments on my articles at Seeking Alpha or both. Lately the comments have taken a more aggressive tone than normal on the blog but interestingly not on my posts at Seeking Alpha (SA reruns the same posts). I’ve generally been saying the same thing for seven years and sometimes I am a good guy for it and other times I am “deluding” myself. Sentiment is of course very volatile as fear of being broke, losing your nest egg and being out on the street is a core fear for many people and anything the makes those fears perceptually closer to reality, like a malfunctioning stock market, will evoke an emotional response. Emotional responses can be an enemy of long term portfolio success. I repeatedly make the point about taking bits of process from many sources, including this one if you like, to create your own process. Your own process needs to be one that gives you a reasonable basis to think you are giving yourself a reasonable chance of having enough money when you need it. You also need to have a process that you can understand (as obvious as...

Is The Market Frustrated?

For months now the US equity market has been churning violently in the same general range without having made much progress. This type of action can be a source of frustration for investors. Over the years the comments on this blog have been something of a sentiment gauge although not infallible. There have been times like late 2008 and early 2009 where a lot of frustration and even hostility showed up in the comments of the blog, in the comments on my articles at Seeking Alpha or both. Lately the comments have taken a more aggressive tone than normal on the blog but interestingly not on my posts at Seeking Alpha (SA reruns the same posts). I’ve generally been saying the same thing for seven years and sometimes I am a good guy for it and other times I am “deluding” myself. Sentiment is of course very volatile as fear of being broke, losing your nest egg and being out on the street is a core fear for many people and anything the makes those fears perceptually closer to reality, like a malfunctioning stock market, will evoke an emotional response. Emotional responses can be an enemy of long term portfolio success. I repeatedly make the point about taking bits of process from many sources, including this one if you like, to create your own process. Your own process needs to be one that gives you a reasonable basis to think you are giving yourself a reasonable chance of having enough money when you need it. You also need to have a process that you can understand (as obvious as...

Friday Tidbits

First up is an IPO of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust which is part of conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa which will list in Singapore. The actual ports are in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Macau but the listing, as mentioned, is in Singapore. The trust structure can be thought of as being like a REIT and this one will yield 5-6%. If you’ve been reading this blog for a while you know I think China is an important investment destination but also a very complex one. Our exposure is something of an underweight by way of the country’s weight in a couple of thematic ETFs. While I continue to believe banks, manufacturers and reverse mergers should be avoided I think things like ports, toll roads, energy and staples items are a good way to go. Chinese don’t have to speculate on real estate but there are things that they essentially have to do or money that has to be spent which is where I will continue to look. There was an article on Seeking Alpha yesterday titled Your Ira Doesn’t Have To Be Boring. The post was so bad I’m not going to link to it, I’ll just say your IRA probably should be boring. SPDR came out with two new ETFs. One is an emerging market bond fund denominated in local currency ticker symbol EBND and the other is an emerging market dividend fund ticker EDIV. Both are me too funds with some differences and some similarities. If you have interest in these spaces you should add these to the list of options to consider. Speaking of new ETFs, FactorShares listed...

Friday Tidbits

First up is an IPO of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust which is part of conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa which will list in Singapore. The actual ports are in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Macau but the listing, as mentioned, is in Singapore. The trust structure can be thought of as being like a REIT and this one will yield 5-6%. If you’ve been reading this blog for a while you know I think China is an important investment destination but also a very complex one. Our exposure is something of an underweight by way of the country’s weight in a couple of thematic ETFs. While I continue to believe banks, manufacturers and reverse mergers should be avoided I think things like ports, toll roads, energy and staples items are a good way to go. Chinese don’t have to speculate on real estate but there are things that they essentially have to do or money that has to be spent which is where I will continue to look. There was an article on Seeking Alpha yesterday titled Your Ira Doesn’t Have To Be Boring. The post was so bad I’m not going to link to it, I’ll just say your IRA probably should be boring. SPDR came out with two new ETFs. One is an emerging market bond fund denominated in local currency ticker symbol EBND and the other is an emerging market dividend fund ticker EDIV. Both are me too funds with some differences and some similarities. If you have interest in these spaces you should add these to the list of options to consider. Speaking of new ETFs, FactorShares listed...

Tweet On Twitter

I am now on Twitter at twitter.com/randomroger. I was probably lucky to be able to get that address. The picture in this post is one I cropped (sorry Larry) for my Twitter profile. I don’t know exactly how I will use this so we’ll just see how it evolves. I know there are widgets that can be embedded in various places but have not gotten to that yet. Baby steps. Please check me out if you have the...

Tweet On Twitter

I am now on Twitter at twitter.com/randomroger. I was probably lucky to be able to get that address. The picture in this post is one I cropped (sorry Larry) for my Twitter profile. I don’t know exactly how I will use this so we’ll just see how it evolves. I know there are widgets that can be embedded in various places but have not gotten to that yet. Baby steps. Please check me out if you have the...