This is a stock market blog about portfolio management,foreign stocks, exchange traded funds and the occasional musing about my firefighting experiences. The point here is to share process

A 64% Decline? Really?

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and includes the following;

I thought of a different way to frame the swirl of indicators all saying different things at any moment in market history. There are things to be concerned about and there are things to act on. The very narrow leadership of the market this year would go on the list of things to be concerned about. Narrow leadership is an unhealthy sign but doesn’t indicate that the market has turned or offer any timing as to when it will turn.

Please click through to read the entire post.

I hope will also click over to my page at TheMaven for more commentary including my two latest;

Generational Selling Opportunity

These ETFs Go To 11

Over the weekend we went up to the slot canyons near Page, Arizona and then over to Canyon de Chelly. If you are into things like National Parks and National Monuments go spend a month in Page. With in easy driving distance is the North Rim of the Grand Canyon, Zion National Park, Bryce National Park, Vermillion Cliffs National Monument, Paria Canyon (the Wave), Horseshoe Bend, Escalante National Monument, a bunch of slot canyons and a few other things I am probably forgetting.





Prediction Time!

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following;

The narrowing leadership and breadth indicators have been negative for quite a while as just a handful of stocks have done much of the lifting of the index this year. This is unquestionably a negative in my opinion but the predictive value for when the market will turn down isn’t very good. Bad breadth in this context could remain bad for quite a while longer. What if the same four or five mega cap tech stocks that have propped up the market in 2017 go on to all double in 2018? That’s not a prediction but if it were to happen, I would think the S&P 500 Index would be up a lot.

Please click through to read the entire post.

While your at it, please check out my page at a new site I recently started writing for. My latest post looks at factor funds.



Take the under on this time being different

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following;

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will start trading bitcoin futures on December 18th. Aside from making a two way market more accessible, many believe it will pave the way for exchange traded funds to start trading, the idea being that ETFs would create the exposure with derivatives. The hope in some circles is that being able to short bitcoin might dampen volatility, this past week it moved 10% on three different days, two up and one down. During the financial crisis there were some stocks that were banned from short selling which arguably had the opposite effect of what was intended, those stocks kept going down. No one should be surprised if the adoption of a futures market does not result in reduced bitcoin volatility. More and more clients will likely start asking about bitcoin for their portfolios. We continue to suggest advisors spend the time to learn about cryptocurrencies in order to be able to have informed conversations regardless of the conclusions they draw about suitability.

Please click through to read the entire update.

Also, as I announced last week I have also started posting different content at The content there is more like the old Random Roger blog posts, with new content going up almost every day. I hope you can check it out and if you inclined please consider registering and following my page, it’s free!



TheMaven Weekly Roundup

Earlier this week announced my new blogging gig with With one week under my belt I wanted to give a recap of what I wrote and invite you to check it out and hope you’ll consider registering as a user (it’s free!)

  1. My first post is a welcome letter that summarizes the topics I will be covering at TheMaven.
  2. Essential retirement building blocks
  3. Alternatives are not toxic
  4. A look at infrastructure ETFs
  5. The pros and cons of paying off your mortgage
  6. Be very careful shorting volatility
  7. Why I sold bitcoin
  8. Leave your politics at the door


Big News!

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following;

I’ve disclosed many times that the portfolio I manage for clients is mostly a mix of individual issues and narrower ETFs. If you do anything remotely similar, how have you done this year? How have each of your holdings done? How has the overall equity portion of your portfolio done in relation to the roughly 16% gain for the S&P 500?

Please click through to read the entire post.

If you haven’t heard, I am also blogging at a relatively new site called TheMaven. I have quite a few posts up. This is my home page which is a good place to start. Please consider registering as a user and following my page. It is easy, doesn’t cost anything and can be done through Facebook if that is easier.

Last December in Malibu.


Red Sox at the Mariners last July.


Trophy Truck from last April.