This is a stock market blog about portfolio management,foreign stocks, exchange traded funds and the occasional musing about my firefighting experiences. The point here is to share process

It Doesn’t Have To Be Doom & Gloom

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following;

Another point I would reiterate from past posts is to realize that whatever number you end up with as your investment account, you will figure a way to make due with it because you will have to. The context here is believing your number to be $800,000 and retiring with $600,000. That is not ideal, something might have to give but it is not disastrous as opposed to ending up with only 10% of what you believe your number to be.

Please click through to read the entire post.




Hawkishly Dovish?

This week’s Market Update is posted and includes the following;

On the optimism side of the ledger, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey registered the highest numbers since 2000 for Current Conditions. Looking a little closer at the numbers, there is a shocking disparity along political lines. Republicans registered at 122.4,versus an overall number of 97.6, while Democrats came in at 55.3. As an adviser you likely have had clients ask you if they should make changes to their portfolio because Trump won the election. You also probably had different clients ask you the same question after Obama won in 2008. We are unaware of any long term investment strategy (as opposed to short term trading) that avers reactionary portfolio changes based on political outcomes. Staying disciplined is of course key to clients’ long term financial success and only being disciplined 90% of the time won’t get it done.

Please click through to read the entire update.

Taken in the Mint 400 pit area before the Mint 400.


From the Mint 400 inspection day in Las Vegas


Pink camouflage?


No, You Don’t Own An ETF

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at a few interesting (and funny) items from the current Barron’s issue.

From the post;

There was an article about one of the publicly traded asset managers (naming names is complicated for compliance reasons). A reader shared that he owned one of this company’s energy sector ETFs in the comments section. No, he owned a closed end fund from a company with a similar name. The name mix up is one thing but not knowing the difference between a closed end fund and an ETF is problematic, potentially very much so. The CEF he owns just announced that 78% of its current “dividend” is actually a return of capital. An ROC does not have to be bad, but is something that someone who owns the fund should know and I am guessing he doesn’t.

Please click through to read the entire post.

Support vehicle with a topo map paint job.


One of my favorite trophy trucks for the color.


I get a kick out of the spare tire (s) shots.


The Best Week Of The Year!

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following;

As the ten year spent a few minutes during the week above 2.60% we want to circle back to Bill Gross’ comments from last year where he placed great importance on 2.60% as being a point where bad things would ensue for capital markets, and he still feels this way. In mid-December, the ten year also flirted 2.60%, quickly backed off and equities are up almost 5% since then. Jeff Gundlach went after Gross publicly back then, claiming that 2.60% was not a significant pivot. We won’t choose a side based on the fundamentals or personalities but if there is any yield which actually turns out to be a significant pivot, it won’t be the mere touching of that level on some random day or two that makes it significant. For now, it is too early to proclaim Gross as being wrong or right.

Please click through to read the entire update.

Heavily filtered black and white picture of a Toyota Trophy Truck.


This buggy started out as a Jeep


This one was relatively popular on my Instagram feed for some reason.


Separating Reality From Catastrophe

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at recent comments from Rob Arnott about the trouble he sees brewing with smart beta strategies.

From the post;

Arnott goes on to say he sees this performance chasing as a looming catastrophe for buyers. This seems very unlikely. The downside here is that a given strategy will lag the broad market for an extended period. Taking a very simplistic example between a large cap value strategy and the index, one must outperform and one must lag. There isn’t a scenario where, sticking with the word catastrophe, a value oriented smart beta goes down 40% while the S&P 500 goes up 10%. It would be easy to see that value oriented smart beta up 5% or flat in an up 10% world which isn’t catastrophic unless you have an inordinately low tolerance.

Please click through to read the entire post.

Mint 400 pit area


Inspection day in downtown Las Vegas


A trophy lite out on the course